Much is being made in some circles of the supposed “mandate” that the convicted felon, President-Elect Donald Trump has won to do what he wants to do when he gets to the White House. 
The phrases being used include “an unprecedented and powerful mandate” (Trump in his victory speech); “a clear mandate to fix what is broken” (Fox News host Sean Hannity); and, from Republican lawmakers, that Trump’s mandate is huge, supersedes their prerogatives, and is “effectively the only one that counts.”
Some of the numbers might seem to support the “mandate” narrative.
- Trump seems to have won the popular vote (for the first time in his three runs for President), although it is a very small margin.
- Trump’s vote count increased by about 3% over the number he received in 2020: 74,216,747. At the same time, Harris received 7.5 million votes fewer than President Joe Biden had received in 2020.
- Republicans took back the majority in the Senate in 2024, gaining four seats to win a 53 to 47 majority and electing Sen. John Thune of South Dakota as Majority Leader.
- Republicans held onto the House, although by how much is unknown: votes are still being counted at this writing. Speaker of the House, Louisiana Rep. Mike Johnson, has been supportive of Trump since he was elected in 2016.
Winning always gives rise to exultation, gratification and excitement on the part of the winners. Trump and his team have hit the ground running in proposing individuals (mostly white men, it should be noted) to fill Cabinet and other major positions in the government. It is generally a given that a duly-elected President should be able to surround him- or herself with the officials who can help him/her carry out their policies. We will see over time which of Trump’s choices who need Senate confirmation get it in the end. For now, it is unsurprising that most of Trump’s choices coincide with many of his campaign promises (and threats) for how he will rule.
The above numbers and results only paint part of the picture in American politics, however. The Democracy Coalition – the massive bipartisan group of supporters who came together on behalf of Kamala Harris during the campaign – might take heart at other aspects of the 2024 election and plan to act on them.
- Trump’s 3% increase in votes is not insurmountable. Joe Biden earned 81,268,867 votes in 2020, over 7 million more votes than Trump had received. In 2024, Harris received 7.5 million votes fewer than Biden had received. The Democracy Coalition needs to examine what accounts for these disparities, but one initial observation might be that, if the next Democratic presidential candidate can regain “only” 4-5 million votes in 2028 (which seems doable), and the GOP candidate hovers around 75-76 million votes as in the past two cycles, the Dem will win. (Note that total votes cast have increased considerably since 2016.)
- Trump’s win is not a landslide, as he and his “fan club” would love us to believe! Here is what recent landslide elections in the US look like – and Trump is nowhere close with his 312 electoral votes and a slim percentage margin:
- 1964. Lyndon Johnson: 486 electoral votes vs. Barry Goldwater’s 52 (electoral margin of victory of 80.6 percentage points)
- 1980. Ronald Reagan: 489 electoral votes to Jimmy Carter’s 49 (81.8 percentage points)
- 1972. Richard Nixon: 520 electoral votes vs. George McGovern’s 17 (93.5 percentage points)
- 1984. Reagan: 525 electoral votes to 13 for Walter Mondale
- 1936. Franklin Roosevelt: 523 electoral votes to Alf Landon’s 8
- The GOP margin in Congress will continue to be very small. History has shown time and again that the party that wins the presidency often loses the House and/or the Senate in the first midterm election after that win. With the GOP House margin so small, and with many Republican Senators up for reelection in 2026, the Democrats have something to strive for.
- Despite Trump’s outsized role in overturning Roe v. Wade in 2022, by appointing the three conservative Justices who solidified the anti-choice outcome, many voters who chose Trump in 2024 also apparently voted in favor of abortion rights around the country.
This is puzzling but shows that many of those voters may be inclined to switch to Democracy Coalition candidates in 2026 and 2028. - Voters in five swing states that went for Trump also chose Democratic Senators. This suggests that voters could “swing” back to the Democratic presidential candidate in four years.
- Amy Klobuchar, Minnesota
- Tammy Baldwin, Wisconsin
- Jacky Rosen, Nevada
- Elissa Slotkin, Michigan
- Ruben Gallego won in Arizona over election-denier Kari Lake (who just reached a settlement over her false contention that she won the Governor’s race in 2022…).
- Millions of Americans find Trump dangerous and/or repellent and could not bring themselves to vote for Trump. However, many also felt they could not vote for Harris either. There are probably a number of reasons for this – related to racism, misogyny, her background, her policies? – but the Democracy Coalition should look hard at the far-right media landscape for potential explanations. What is the role of vast disinformation, lies, dark money and bad actors? If these factors are in significant play, they will not go away in the foreseeable future and can and should be dealt with aggressively – not just to win votes but for the sake of the country.
The facts and evidence speak: Trump does not enjoy a complete “mandate,” and Americans should stand firm and insist on this, loudly and clearly.
- Trump and his supporters are making a big deal about this lie; they are “leveraging the shock of his victory to discredit the political opposition.”
- There is absolutely no Constitutional mandate for fascism, which is basically what the Trump machine is offering.
- Per the very conservative National Review, there is no mandate for chaos.
- Per MSNBC host Chris Hayes, there is no mandate for the unpopular MAGA agenda: “I find the lesson of George W. Bush and Social Security reform illuminating here. Then as now, we have a Republican president-elect winning a thin majority of votes. And then as now they want to act as if they have a sweeping mandate to remake a federal institution that millions of Americans rely on.”
We members of the Democracy Coalition cannot roll over and play dead. We cannot give in to despair. We cannot spend enormous amounts of energy second-guessing our basic values. We must be strong, courageous and strategic, we must be “wise as serpents and innocent as doves” (Matthew 10:16), we must take care of ourselves and each other, and we must find ways to move our nation forward in the face of seemingly insurmountable odds.